Bad luck

Bellucci injured his knee before Wimbledon when he was in great form and playing at a good level.

Great level from Bellucci during the grass swing, but unfortunately the Italian couldn’t play Wimbledon and withdrew from all the tournaments. He’ll be coming back and we don’t have much info, which could also suggest that he might show up for this tournament, which is still a Masters 1000, also from a financial point of view. It’s fair to wonder about it. On the other hand, if he comes back immediately at the level he had during the grass season, we’ll need to be careful with him. Plus, on hard courts, he’s capable of doing some really nice things with his game. I think it’s kind of the perfect compromise between grass and clay to allow him to fully express himself. Obviously, the main doubt is still about his physical condition.

Not too many doubts about Baez’s physical condition, and even about his level more generally. The Argentinian has put together some very good tournaments recently and can lean on this beginning of regained confidence to maybe do something here. Sure, he doesn’t have as good a track record as in Kitzbühel, but we can also expect his level to be decent this week. Hard courts aren’t his favorite surface, but at the start of the year he played very well on them and he’s already had some good runs during that period.

The foundations are set, so let’s talk about the potential match‑up and conditions. I find it pretty fast this year, which could really help Bellucci, even if seeing Baez gain in power is always nice. His counterpunching quality and movement can really drive Bellucci crazy, and Bellucci probably won’t be perfect for his return to competition. We don’t know if he’s in shape, but it still wouldn’t be very likely to see him show up and play his best match. Let’s say logic pushes us towards Baez’s side, but not at any price.