Meticulous, top-notch management.

Berrettini is targeting the US Open and wants to build up his form by then. He has planned his schedule for that purpose, and that’s why he hasn’t played a match since Wimbledon.

So yes, he mentions a small hip issue and the fact that his doctor advised him not to play the clay-court tournament so he could get some rest, but the goal was already clear in Berrettini’s mind: he wanted to go to the US Open this year. He keeps repeating it, he wants to prepare and arrive in good shape for this tournament. He also insists that he doesn’t expect to play his best tennis right away and that he won’t be too hard on himself. I like this mentality, because it’s often when you don’t expect much and you just want to play and find your rhythm again that you’re at your best. If you also add the fact that his parents are traveling with him this time and that it makes him happy, I see quite a few positive off-court things for Berrettini. And if you add the level of tennis we’ve seen from him recently, especially at Wimbledon, it makes for a pretty explosive mix. He doesn’t expect to play his best tennis, and that will probably be the case, but he has a first-round match that’s well within his reach even at that level.

Because yes, playing Navone on hard court is still much easier than playing him on clay. The Argentinian still fights hard even on this surface, but his level of play is much lower there and he simply has fewer wins, which is normal given the low quality of his offensive game and especially his serve. Careful though, he’s not a nobody. As I said, he’s already played some great matches on it, but there’s a world of difference in their maximum potential level on this surface. Between these two players, Berrettini also leads 3–0 in the head-to-head on clay, Navone’s best surface. The Argentinian’s chances here aren’t that high when you put everything together.

Should we immediately trust Berrettini and expect him to manage this match well? Or do we side with Navone, who isn’t exactly impressive but will keep sending the ball back again and again, trying to make the Italian implode?