He's such a pain, that Fucsovics

The Hungarian always has some physical issue. We spend our time playing guessing games with him because he pulls out of a bunch of tournaments.

After a good Wimbledon, and finally a few solid matches while reassuring everyone about his shoulder, Fucsovics simply hasn't played since and withdrew from Bastad without giving a reason. We're once again left to guess what's going on with him. I think he wasn't fully recovered from his shoulder injury during the grass-court season, and that he pushed himself to play Wimbledon, and then took the time to heal it, which would be a blessing in disguise. His level of play was still quite good in his last few matches, and I think that on this type of surface in these conditions, he can really achieve great results. The speculation, therefore, centers more on his physical condition than on his level of play.

There's really no doubt about Moutet's physical condition, but he's playing terribly right now! I initially overestimated his recent losses, but in hindsight, the more objective I try to be, the more I realize it's been a long time since I've seen him play a complete match. He lost again last week in the first round and is on a losing streak. He's not playing his best tennis right now, and historically, he hasn't been able to gain a real advantage over Fucsovics either. The matches are always close, and he's clearly not in good form. His only win came in a decisive tiebreak against Mpeshi at Queens; his last real victory was in Barcelona at the beginning of April. The Frenchman is clearly struggling, yet he's still the favorite.

I don't see a clear match-up advantage for either player. It's going to be a tough battle, and I'd even say that Fucsovics, with a bit of inspiration, can really trouble Moutet because when you give the Hungarian too much space, he's capable of doing damage with his forehand and following up at the net.