A place on fire?

Draxl will have to bring out his best tennis, if not more, to beat an in-form and promising player.

The Canadian is a regular on the Challenger tour; he doesn’t really have any notable achievements on the main circuit. In his last two appearances at this tournament, he was soundly beaten. Nothing to get excited about, even if this year he’s coming in relatively good form. He’s just made a Challenger final, but he still hasn’t beaten any big players. He’s a player with a rather average level of play, somewhat solid on both sides, but he doesn’t excel anywhere. He often has physical issues too, especially cramps. Unless there’s a huge level boost from playing at home, he’s not someone you’d see as a monster on court.

Merida plays at a higher level, and contrary to what you might think, he’s already had some very good results on hard courts. He’s played no fewer than a hundred matches on this surface, and I’m not surprised, because he’s not a player who can only shine on clay; he has a game that can adapt well to many surfaces, especially hard, where he’s already won several Challengers. We also saw earlier this year that he was able to trouble some good players on this surface. If you add to that the fact that he’s coming in with huge confidence after a title in Umag, that makes him dangerous. I see a clear gap in level in this matchup, and if I have to tone down what I think, I’d say Merida will have to manage the surface transition and deal with a home player. Those are the two factors that could be worrying, but everything else clearly leans in his favor.