Bluff or real injury?

Fritz had another knee problem and had to save a match point against Michelsen to get through.

It really wasn’t peak Fritz today, and on top of that he had a scare with his left knee this time, which isn’t the one he usually has trouble with. He says it twisted a bit and he felt a pretty sharp pain, but that it quickly faded afterwards. Do we actually want to believe him? Honestly, I’m quite skeptical. I really didn’t like his body language in the third set against Michelsen. You could almost feel that, for him, it was serious and that despite the win, he was going to have an issue for the rest of the tournament because of this potential injury. But if he then comes out and says it’s nothing and he’s not worried, I find that weird. He’s still alive in the tournament and we’ll have to check the state of his knee tomorrow. He’s got another in‑form compatriot to face.

Nakashima is in form and very clinical this week. He had already pulled that off against Mensik by being very efficient, and it was the same again today, even more so, against De Minaur in a match where I still don’t quite understand how he managed to win both sets back to back. He was down 4–2, facing a double-break point in the first set, and ended up taking it in the tie-break, before winning 6–4 in the second set, having had to save break points in 4 of his 5 service games. That’s what you call a smash-and-grab, Nakashima-style.

To pull off a smash-and-grab, you need to play evenly most of the time and manage to clutch the key moments. The level of play was clearly better than against Mensik. When I say it’s a smash-and-grab, it’s mostly about the chances created and taken, rather than the level of play itself. He really played a super solid match and will come in confident tomorrow. He’s already beaten Fritz several times.

Fritz leads 3–2 in their head-to-head, but that doesn’t mean it’s ever easy. We’ve got two excellent servers; I rate Fritz higher in that area, but Nakashima has nothing to be ashamed of either. From the baseline, Fritz is also a bit stronger. Basically, to sum it up, Fritz is a slightly more complete version of Nakashima. Logic would suggest he should win, but it’s still not an easy match, especially with the doubts surrounding his knee. Nakashima is beating top players this week and has no physical issues. He might be the one to back.