Does Diallo take on water?

A Canadian arriving at his most important local tournament in clearly underwhelming form. He’s got a record of 4 wins and 14 losses since Miami. There are a few matches where he hangs in there and comes back. That was on grass at the Eastbourne tournament. We thought there was something coming back, which for him is often linked to confidence, and then to his physical attributes. And then we get his first hard-court match in Los Cabos, where he’s in control in the first set against Boyer before collapsing. We’ve already seen that version of this Canadian. And I don’t think that just because he’s playing at home he’s suddenly going to turn back into the Prime Dialo we know. The analysis here really has to focus on the match-up and whether the Frenchman, Kyrian Jaquet, has the ease and the skill to make him play, to be able to neutralize him, and of course, to hit good passing shots. Because a Canadian who’s lacking confidence is a Canadian who can get sloppy in his attacking phases. And in fact, when he’s on grass, when he starts his grass season and faces Mannarino and realizes he has to be patient from the baseline, he’s capable of playing at a good level as a resilient baseliner. That’s when he starts to find some rhythm and better understands the moments when he needs to attack. And that’s how he gradually got his confidence back. But that doesn’t seem to have been the case in the match against Boyer. So I’m pretty pessimistic about the Canadian’s level here. On the other hand, the Frenchman had a slight dip after Wimbledon and didn’t show a great level on clay, at least not on the Croatian clay in Umag. But in Estoril, he came back to a serious level. I didn’t see his qualifying match in Montreal against Shevchenko, but Shevchenko on hard is still a solid player you have to go and beat. The Frenchman is a mobile player. He’s better when he’s aggressive. And I think his returning quality is going to help him in this match-up. I do indeed see him as the favorite. Now, by how much? It’s really tight, because the Canadian is still going to give everything. And often, it all comes down to the first set. If he wins it, that can give him confidence for what follows. But if the first set is a grind and he loses it, things could really get stuck for the Canadian. I think I know what kind of bet I’m going to suggest on this match.