Are you sure?

At first glance, Bergs seems way too much of a favorite. But maybe he deserves it?

It’s true that Bergs is coming off several successful weeks on grass, including a title and a great battle lost at Wimbledon. We know the Belgian needs all his mental and physical strength to perform at his best. Last week, he had a disastrous draw in Washington and I didn’t really like what he brought to the table in that particular match. The upside of losing so early is that he’s had a good ten days to prepare for this new tournament, which logically should allow him to be in much better shape.

I remain cautious because from one tournament to another, his motivation varies greatly, as does his level of play. He has to convince us again every week. I’m puzzled about this tournament because it doesn’t seem to motivate many players. The weather is awful, the hype is non-existent. I much prefer Cincinnati for Zizou. We’ll see if that’s the case for him as well.

There’s no such question with Baez, whom we already saw highly motivated and performing well in his opening match today against Bellucci. So yes, the Italian completely missed his match and did anything and everything, but Baez did his job just as we expected. The Argentine is motivated at the moment, he’s coming in after some rather solid matches on clay recently and, as I mentioned in the previous analysis, he has already performed well on this kind of swing and on hard courts. In other words, I believe in him over the next few weeks, or at least that he can play at his best level and put up some great battles. The opposition gets tougher tomorrow and Zizou is not going to give him as many gifts as Bellucci did; he’ll need to be twice as sharp.

I’m more on Team Bergs in this match-up, provided the Belgian is willing to put in the work and that it’s Baez who takes the initiative in the rallies. Because the Argentine is not just a defender: he likes to attack with his forehand or backhand and inject pace. He’s not just going to camp behind the baseline and grind his opponents down, that’s not his style (well, he can do it, but he’s not going to deliberately give up control of the rallies either). And when guys take the initiative against Zizou, that speaks to me. He’s good on the return and on the counter, and he keeps the advantage on serve as long as he limits the double faults. It’s very speculative regarding his level and his game intentions, but I think that yes, a good Zizou, in full flow, has all the weapons to get the better of Baez.