The Enigma

Which version of Medvedev will show up?

It's safe to say that Medvedev has been quite a disaster ever since that Rome semifinal against Sinner. Losing to Walton in his first round at Roland Garros, almost getting knocked out by Boogard in Hertogenbosch (Tim Van Rijthoven flashbacks), then losing to Altmaier in Halle... and finally the out-of-this-world choke against Struff in Wimbledon. Not entirely unexpected, this led to a breakup with his coach Thomas Johansson. He has now had over a month to recharge his batteries (apparently including a family vacation in Turkey), and now he can show us why hardcourts are the best!

Well, it's still a first round after a rather long time without playing... combine that with a lot of recent choking (although this has been a thing for the last few years for him now). Medvedev has never really struggled against VDZ... but hey, that was the case against Struff as well ;) Botic is coming off a rhythm-less match against Mpetshi Perricard, which is always hard to judge! He played fine, but it always helps when the opponent is so poor from the baseline and also returning. He had to save three breakpoints on his own serve at the start of the first game in the deciding set, so it was not really an easy win. As the H2H would indicate, this is a matchup that does not really favor Botic. While he can hit big shots, he lacks the consistency while playing attacking tennis, and Medvedev is simply a better defender than him. In big matches, we prefer VDZ more in a counterpunching role where he can absorb and then successfully transition into his own offense. When he gets to play this kind of "balanced" tennis, he is really good. Against Medvedev, he is forced to be either the one who tries to attack and dictate a bit more, or get stuck in longer rallies against Medvedev, which does not really suit him either...