The favorite isn’t the one we thought it would be.

I was quite surprised by the odds at first, but let’s analyze all of this.

Big win for Shang against Rublev, the Chinese player marks his return to the forefront without showing any signs of a potential injury. Everything is going well for him, and he played at an excellent level, especially in the decisive tie-break where he went and grabbed the match against a more passive Rublev. Great victory, but already a lot of energy spent and, knowing his tendency to collapse physically, it's still worrying. Sure, he'll get a day off to recover, but let’s remember he’s also coming back from injury, which means he doesn’t yet have his usual top recovery capacity. However, the level was very good, he’ll still be tough to beat in the next round and he looks like he’s enjoying himself on court. I also really liked his attitude, because even when he was a bit behind and in trouble, he kept smiling. I think it was also because he felt like a real underdog in this match and mainly wanted to enjoy himself on court, which will probably be less the case against Darderi, where he’ll feel a certain pressure, knowing he can get a very good result here. We’ll immediately see if his attitude changes.

Darderi also reassured us regarding his physical condition. We had last seen him retire in Los Cabos and there was quite a bit of concern, but he had already reassured a bit in an interview before this first round, saying it was nothing serious and that it should be fine.

This time, I didn’t see any issue with his wrist, which had forced him to retire. On the contrary, I found him absolutely monstrous. He played an almost perfect match against Diallo before the Canadian got injured and retired in the second set. But the whole first part of the match was high level from the Italian. When his body leaves him alone and he can battle mentally the way he should, he’s a very tough player to put away. Once again, this week, you’ll have to beat him several times to knock him out, given how much of a born competitor he is. I also love the fact that he’s really fresh, since he didn’t really play Los Cabos, he had a bye in the first round, and this second match didn’t last long. If you add the rest day on top of that, he should normally be ready to last more than three hours easily, which I don’t really think is the case for Shang.

In terms of match-up, it’s going to be a fierce baseline battle. I think Darderi has solid arguments because he can do a bit of everything. He’s good at holding his own when he’s in more defensive phases, but above all he has a massive forehand that I think can really hurt Shang’s backhand, as Shang probably prefers a bit more rhythm since his backhand is quite flat. Taking a huge slap from Darderi on that side is going to bother him a bit. Even though I see a Chinese player in good form, I still have to give the edge to Darderi, who has already proven more at every level.