Can we really believe in Arthur Fils?

You never really know where you stand with Arthur’s physical issues. Let’s analyze this as if everything were fine, and add a small handicap in case of a retirement, just to be void on the sharps ;).

The Frenchman is, I find, currently looking for some kind of cruising rhythm. Surprisingly, he handed the initiative to Navone for a good part of the match, leaving the Argentine to deal with his own shortcomings as an attacker. Fine against a player as erratic as Svajda in R1, fine against a Navone who doesn’t hurt enough from the baseline. But what happens against a versatile Cameron Norrie?

The Brit is a miracle man. He scraped through at the very last moment against a De Minaur who was really struggling mentally. The Brit just couldn’t cope with the Australian workhorse. He kept forcing himself to come to the net very often to shorten rallies, but he’d come in under poor conditions and/or volley badly afterwards.

If Arthur sticks to this strategy of being a rock-solid baseliner who’s impossible to hit through and able to fire a missile from time to time, then I think Norrie won’t really know what to do. I almost get the feeling Arthur mainly does this to save his body, or rather, to damage it as little as possible. In my opinion, it’s when he really leans into the forehand on open stance with a lot of core engagement that it hurts him in the long run, plus maybe the serve.

Anyway, nothing guarantees me that Arthur is going to play like that. But if he does, we’ve seen how much Norrie can lose his game. Still, I’m afraid the Frenchman is already far too big a favorite...