How far will Merida go?

Here we are with a Spaniard we maybe thought was on a heater, but who in the end, I think, is simply showing his real level. We’ll see if he keeps it going in Cincinnati, but right now, he really doesn’t look like he’s overperforming at all. He’s a guy who mainly does serious damage from the baseline with, on both sides, really massive power.

In a match‑up you might think is similar to Tien vs Tirante here, there are several things to say. First, the Tennis Insight rating of 9.1 on the backhand side for Merida in his last match. Pretty reassuring before facing a lefty! Then, the second big factor is Learner Tien’s left elbow injury. Nicolas Mahut, a pundit on Eurosport, says he probably won’t go all the way in the tournament because of that, and that against Tirante it was “enough” for him to defend well to force errors from the other big brute (that wording’s from me though ;)).

Now, here, I trust Merida more to stay clear‑headed and patient, even if he’ll surely play his aggressive game, and that’s perfectly normal. I still think Tien’s game is going to bother him quite a bit though, cf. his match against the little scooter Draxl in the first round, which was an absolutely crazy match. You had to kill the Canadian 5 times before beating him, but Merida also has unsuspected mental resources.

All in all, I think the Spaniard’s odds are this high mainly because we don’t have much data on him, but I do think he’s capable of landing a +20.5 games in value mode. Why not more? I’m a bit held back by the match‑up. Some of his losses this season: Jacquet, Burruchaga, Rocha, Medvedev, 3 sets against Dzumhur, Navone, Svajda… quite a lot of very mobile and solid guys, to be fair!