Big stuff all around!

The serving and the power will be on full display tomorrow in this clash that’s shaping up to be pretty exciting.

I almost want to say that the winner of this clash will be a strong favorite to reach the final afterwards. The opportunity is a great one, but we’ve got two players who have already won tournaments in this category, in other words, they have the experience and shouldn’t panic. That’s why I expect them to play their best match tomorrow in a top-level showdown.

Shelton has just taken out Fonseca in a match that was a bit disappointing, I think, given what it had promised. But it’s also the version of Shelton we prefer: the one where he cleans up his game and plays with much more intelligence and efficiency. This week, he still hasn’t lost a set and seems relatively calm, even though he’s been a break down several times and started his sets very poorly against the Brazilian. That’s the only thing he’ll need to fix because the rest was good. His serve is effective, as always, and he’s in exactly the right mindset this week, because the conditions aren’t easy. He knows he’s not playing his very best tennis and he’s not trying to. He hangs in there, and as soon as he needs to step it up, he does it brilliantly. It’s already this version of the American that we loved last year, the one that allowed him to win Toronto. If he keeps going like this, he’s my favorite to win this tournament.

On Mensik’s side, he lost a set to Fearnley and almost dropped another one against VDZ. The level is good, but he almost always has a dip in the second set that can sometimes cost him dearly. I don’t know if it’s physical or mental, but he rarely manages to play complete matches where he is ultra dominant. That said, he’s serving well and playing well this week. It’s a good version of Mensik. He’s already beaten Shelton twice, including one clear win this year, and he seems relatively more comfortable than the American in this match-up. At the same time, he serves just as well, if not better at certain moments, and above all, when we get a Shelton who’s too aggressive and messy, Mensik can counterpunch and bring out his opponent’s weaknesses.

The difference for me this week is that Shelton is starting to erase his negative lapses and is becoming rock solid again, which somewhat reshuffles the deck. If the American keeps returning this well and manages to lull Mensik to sleep with his backhand slice a bit more this week than in the others, then the match-up would completely flip and he’d have a real shot. A second argument in favor of the American is that he rarely has dips in concentration or level within his matches. Even if he’s struggling after the first set, he’ll believe enough and hang in there to potentially mount a comeback, something I wouldn’t necessarily be sure of in the opposite scenario. Maybe, in theory, I still make Mensik the favorite in this match, but if he falls behind after the first set, for me things are already looking pretty bleak. And on top of that, I think this version of Shelton is going to bother him a lot more than in their previous meeting.