Can Struff let us down?

The German seems made for these fast conditions against a clay-courter who will do everything to contain him but should logically give in. Right?

I'm wary about this first round for several reasons. First, because it's Struff, and you can never really trust him, except in very specific tournaments where it feels like something clicks and he shows up in dangerous underdog mode with nothing to lose, which isn't necessarily the case here. He's played pretty well in the last clay tournaments and was unlucky with the draw in Montreal. He still took a set off Michelsen, but it was more of a smash-and-grab than anything else, given the pretty one-sided score in the other sets.

On the one hand, I think he's playing quite well at the moment, but on the other, there are a few losses that worry me a bit, especially at the Kitzbühel tournament where he just scraped through against a Shevchenko who had really bothered him, before taking a real beating from Navone. More broadly, his stats against solid baseliners who can defend well and contain him are not good. He ends up overforcing and fails to make enough of a difference.

He's rather strong against players who serve well and are aggressive from the baseline, who get a bit caught off guard by his aggressiveness and power. That's really not the kind of match-up he was expecting, but it's true that the fast conditions in Cincinnati still work in his favor.

On Burruchaga’s side, hard courts are definitely not his preferred surface, no surprise there, but every time he gives it everything. I’d put him in the same category as Navone or Carabelli, guys who are clay-court specialists but never go down without a fight, whatever the surface. We saw it again last week in Montreal, where he led on the scoreboard for a long time against Popyrin before collapsing at the end of the match, but that’s not really the main point. I also note that this season on hard, he almost always takes a set off his opponents before losing. And there are some decent players in there. All this to say that even if Burruchaga is still a clay specialist who needs time and likes to construct his points, you still have to grind it out against him on hard.

I love the Argentinian’s profile for kind of nullifying or at least reducing the impact of Struff’s serve and first strikes before being able to redirect the rally. I really like his profile and I think Struff could lose his way in this match, but you have to admit the conditions are completely in the German’s favor.