Who can break the streak?
Neither player is in the greatest form right now...
In my recent Khachanov previews, I've repeatedly expressed that his game is becoming increasingly "limited". Khachanov used to be hard to beat for many opponents due to his power and consistency. Well, that is not really enough anymore these days; now every young player is blasting the ball! Sure, they still have to deal with his ability to absorb power and stay solid, but he is also very predictable and rarely takes initiative himself to do something out of the box. So yes, these younger baseliners are very used to these kinds of high-tempo exchanges, much more so than players who can break rhythm and disrupt them, thus making them come up with solutions. Despite losing in straight-sets, I still found Khachanov to be quite OK in his loss against a very inspired Atmane. Kovacevic faced Borges (who was playing his first match transitioning to hard courts), and after managing to snatch the first set, he put up a decent fight. We are quite used to seeing Kovacevic go on rather long losing streaks... his game just really lacks consistency. Sure, he plays tiebreaks here and there due to his ability to hold serve, but it's mainly his return game and backhand that keep him from stringing wins together more regularly (a bit like Tsitsipas, no?).
I'm really not sold on Khachanov right now or for the upcoming parts, but I do have this matchup perhaps slightly in his favour (although I would prefer him against an underpowered player that lacks variety; he dominates those). Karen is a more consistent server and returner, which is quite important on courts like these, which are fast and with a low bounce - not a lot of rallies. He also might not be punished as much for being "robotic", since he can play this role (staying solid), since Kovacevic most likely will have issues staying in rallies for too long. At the same time, it's on courts like these where Aleksandar can keep matches close, simply by holding his serve (despite his overall form), not having to do a lot of rallies - a good example would be his match in Stuttgart against Hanfmann. Funnily enough, Khachanov played a very dominant match against Hanfmann as well, at Wimbledon this year, where he was in full control with great serving and the ability to do damage on return (could this play out similarly)? Lastly, Kovacevic has a decent slice and the ability to finish at the net, which is always a strength against Khachanov. However, it might not be the easiest thing to achieve, especially with a lack of confidence. There is a high chance we will be seeing some rain the first two days, so let's keep potential rain interruptions in mind for the conclusion as well.


