Oh no, not him!

I love Machac, but he’s so hard to analyze, he’s one of the worst players in that sense, you never know what to expect, and this time even more than usual.

Machac always seems to have some kind of problem, whether it's physical or, more often than not, a lingering virus. You never know what to expect from him, especially in the early rounds. This time, the fact that he hasn't played a match since Roland-Garros due to a foot injury presents a complicated situation. There's this statistic about players returning from injury: generally, they play an excellent first match, without any expectations and with very relaxed tennis. But for the second match, they're exhausted because playing back-to-back matches is difficult when you lack rhythm. And I think that with a foot injury, he hasn't been able to train physically, which poses a serious problem for his game.

However, we have no guarantees about his level of play or his commitment. Perhaps he's just here for this tournament to test himself. I haven't seen him practice recently. We'll have to approach this as a complete unknown. He's a player prone to cramps, even when he's in good form. Considering the humidity levels in Cincinnati during the first few days, and the fact that Carreno-Busta is a player who imposes a good physical battle in his matches, I see a very good chance that Machac will feel the strain at some point during this encounter.

The Spaniard has disappointed me a bit lately in his recent matches. Admittedly, there was a bit of context in Estoril, as he was playing against a red-hot opponent who went on to win the title. But before that, he lost to Carabelli and is also coming off a rather surprising defeat against Royer, where he largely dominated the match before completely fading away. The match wasn't even very physical, and in the third set, he was barely moving. I don't know if he suffered from heat exhaustion or was a bit unwell, perhaps something physical, but he completely shut down. It's quite worrying, and I think that in terms of pure skill level, Machac is normally better than him. He plays with more intensity on both sides and can, I think, do a bit more than Carreño in almost every aspect. The question isn't really about skill level here, but about whether or not he's ready to play a top-level match. We clearly have the answer for Carreño, but not for Machac.