The honeymoon is over, Tommy!

I was expecting to do an analysis with a Tommy around 1.5–1.6, but now, at 1.9, it’s not the same thing guys! You have to know he opened around 1.6 on average according to the books, and he just kept drifting up. It looks a bit like a snowball effect. There isn’t a big whale who dropped €300k and boom. It looks like the result of solid reasoning that’s increasingly shared by the market. Should we get carried away with them?

Tommy Paul is not at his best, we all agree on that. Pretty slow return in Washington, then in Montreal he beats Royer and it’s still laborious. After that, I don’t think the match-up is good for him against Tien, and Tien played very well. What matters is that he’s healthy and happy. And it will come back. Of course we’re wondering about the speed of that, since the US Open is coming up.

But today, it’s Hubbie we have to deal with. The Pole plays good tennis. He just has mental lapses sometimes. It’s true that his tendency to make you play from the baseline, combined with a big serve, doesn’t leave much room for error for Tommy. On top of that, Hubbie had a pretty comfortable warm-up round with a Shimabukuro who was still in bed in the first set. Add a rather favorable match-up for Hubbie (4–3 in their head-to-head), and the odds make more sense.

So, what should we do?