And now?

Fran since his title at Queen's: loss in R1 at Wim, 3 sets to 0 against the returning Munar; two matches at the UTS including a loss against an unknown; a win by retirement and a loss against Gea in Los Cabos; a loss in Montreal. The worst part is the content. He's dangerous in phases, but he still makes far too many errors. On the other hand, he really enjoyed himself in doubles in Montreal with his buddy Etcheverry, since they reached the semis! Enough to at least give him some enjoyment back.

On the other side, Nuno keeps going. I don’t think we should hold that match against Kokkinakis here against him. He was trailing, being pushed around, and in the end he escaped. But you have to give credit to Kokki, and so I’m not questioning Nuno’s current level too much.

If the match had to be decided based on current form, Nuno should clearly be the favorite. On the match-up? Nuno is better on grass despite not really liking the surface much. The Portuguese player has more consistency and mental strength in general. Especially on outdoor hard. While Fran usually plays like steel in Miami, that’s never really been the case in the past on the Canada / Cincy / US Open triptych. His results over there are clearly below his level, and I wonder why. Post-clay swing period, post-family holidays in Argentina... I don’t know.

In any case, at this price, I trust Nuno’s ML a bit more, even if I would have preferred it to be that of a Portuguese underdog...