And there you go...

Unlike with Cobolli, as soon as Arthur wins he’s very quickly seen as a top 10 player. He’s at 1.28 on Pinn, and I find it hard to see any value there. Do you have him at 1.2? That still gives him an 83% chance of winning…

So yes, he doesn’t play many tournaments but he often goes deep. Yes, he’s only lost to Jodar so far on this North American swing. And yes, he’s playing like steel lol. But he’s the one with all the pressure on his shoulders, and we know he doesn’t really like that. Playing Tirante in a Masters 1000 quarterfinal is a godsend. Then to play Paul / Cobolli in the semis, and maybe a Fritz / Tiafoe who beat each other up on the other side.

On the other side, the big hitter Tirante is on fire. Not many people saw him beating Mensik. We know him for his explosive side, but now he’s also showing maturity in this tournament, and even patience and solidity. When he’s at his best like he is right now, he plays with intensity from the baseline without making too many errors. So it’s hard to hit through him, and on top of that you can get blasted by a forehand rocket at any moment (doesn’t even need a neutral ball lol). On the backhand side, his weakness, with the confidence and the ‘nothing to lose’ mindset, it’s holding up a bit better than usual. And on serve, it’s just monstrous in terms of power, and that’s not exactly what Arthur likes to face!

So no, no, at 1.28, I’m not touching it…