Banger?

I think they’d be making a mistake to put Fritz/Nakashima in the night session...

Frances Tiafoe treated us once again last night and keeps proving how good he is this season, especially with that title in Halle in June. He worried us a bit before Cincinnati with that “ghosted-through” match against Atmane in Washington, and his retirement in Montreal. But his wrist, and even his hip (MTO against Tien), are doing just fine! And apart from a little scare when it came time to close it out (he was double break up in set 2 against Félix), he was very solid against a Félix who was a bit too fragile in the rallies. I even think the American returned really well, and you have to distinguish between his return on first serve and on second serve. He’s often able to put a lot of pressure on the return, even if it means making some errors. And anyway, his opponent today (and hopefully tonight) is not a servebot.

Indeed, against a Musetti who is still searching for his best level since coming back from injury, Frances has to smell blood!

The Italian wasn’t in great form against Faria, but given the context (a tired Faria and a somewhat “hit or miss” playing style), I won’t hold it against him. Especially since the previous match was pretty clean! On the other hand, with Arnaldi injured, then Vukic, Mejia, Altmaier, Zheng, and finally a tired Faria, those are Loré’s hard-court wins since his return. So we’re still kind of waiting for a big win from Loré before we can say more. You can feel he still has work to do and that he’s a bit short on confidence.

As for the head to head, it’s 4–4, but advantage Tiafoe on fast surfaces. That said, a lot of their matches come with specific circumstances. The last one at Roland, with a lot of wind and a court more favorable to the Italian’s defense. The one before in Cincinnati in 2024, Musetti was just coming back from a big Olympics at Roland. Etc… I’d say the match-up here really depends on who manages to impose their game. The two buddies know each other very well, and I think the American will lean on his win here 2 years ago and once again come with an aggressive game plan. And in this kind of match-up-sensitive encounter (Musetti has his weapons in defense and variation of course, but not only that…), confidence becomes even more crucial on the big points. And there…