"Pick your poison"?

Neither player is giving us any guarantees right now...

Let's start with the American. What is going on with Jenson? Normally, we expect him to be really tough to beat, especially in North America, on hard courts. That has not been the case at all this year. His wins are against Moutet, Winter, and Walton... with straight-set losses to Wong, Shelton, and Faria. His last match against the Portuguese was especially concerning, since he took an absolute beating and looked physically exhausted shortly into the match. He did withdraw from doubles in Cincinnati (with illness), so perhaps that was it. Nonetheless, the pattern with him is quite clear... he is still OK vs weak or young players lacking experience, but more aggressive players who bully his lack of a serve really trouble him.

Does Mpetshi Perricard fit this category? I would say both yes and no. First of all, his rally tolerance is not good at all, so he can't sustain his attacks like the players who have recently succeeded against Brooksby. It's a lot more... hit or miss. At least he gets a chance to hit some big returns, something he usually struggles with against the good servers. It's safe to say that the Frenchman is also really struggling at the moment. His match all the way back at the first round in Wimbledon was quite concerning, getting repeatedly broken by Hanfmann. Since then, we have only had two matches played, both deciding-set losses to Botic and the younger Svajda brother. Perhaps something that is a bit extra alarming is the fact that in those four lost sets, it has been 2-6, 3-6, 1-6, 2-6... not exactly scorelines you expect from him. Obviously, if he is losing with these scorelines, his serve is not firing on all cylinders. And it's been on somewhat fast hardcourts, not something like slow clay. I also want to mention GMP's run to the semifinals here in Winston-Salem last year, which perhaps looks a bit better on paper than it really was. A deciding-set tiebreaker win in the first round against Pedro Martinez. Then, probably his best match against Muller. After that, he was about to lose the first set to Medjedovic, but the Serb blessed him with a lot of weird unforced errors (failed drop shots) and then proceeded to more or less tank the second set.

I don't think this matchup is that bad for either player. Brooksby should be having some success in the rallies, as long as his serve does not get him in too much trouble... and as long as he can return decently. On the other hand, if GMP can stay strong on serve, he can probably find at least one good return game against the Brooksby serve, so I don't hate this matchup for him either currently. It seems like the weather will be quite "normal", not too extreme, which I would say benefits GMP a bit more, for his stability on serve...