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That’s it, the Winston-Salem final is over, I can analyze this match. I was really looking forward to this final because Fery was up against a profile I find quite similar to Musetti’s. In fact, Buse and Musetti are both natural clay-courters, who loop their trajectories and build their points from the baseline. Their backhands are different, and I think Buse is more willing to finish at the net.

Still, Fery got a bit fed up with seeing the ball come back so often, and worse, with getting punished whenever Buse attacked. He was stuck because Buse has more power from the baseline and also defends just as well as Fery, albeit in a different way. So on paper, it’s potentially a rather favorable match-up for the Italian. Now, Buse grew into the tournament in Winston and finished strong. Will Musetti already have a good level here?

In 2025, the Italian was coming off a very bad American swing before playing GMP in R1 of the US Open (meaning a favorable match-up for him). He got through in 4 sets, then went on to reach the quarterfinals, where he lost to Sinner. This year, the Italian arrives with a few more wins, but no real ‘statement’ victory. Only guys he’s supposed to beat, and beat clearly for that matter (in the conditions in which he faced them, of course). But he showed against Tiafoe that he could raise his level, and that’s good because he’ll need it right from his first round here!

So assuming Loré can play at a decent level here, I therefore find it very logical that he’s the favorite. But to have him at 1.25?