Arthur on his lands...

You know it: Arthur on American hard courts can be really strong. It’s his favorite surface, the one he played on in college, the one where he’s experienced the biggest atmospheres. I want to list Arthur’s standout wins at the US Open for you. Kecmanovic in 2021 (then 4 sets against Carlito), Halys in 2022, Berrettini in 2023, puts Rublev in danger in 2024, Fokina in 2025.

Up against a much less experienced Shimabukuro in Grand Slams, who above all hasn’t managed to ride his exceptional grass-court form, I don’t think there’s much of a contest. His usual strength is aggression, including on the return, but right now his pure level has clearly dropped. Sure, he’s still a good baseliner with a good center of gravity, and he can move Arthur around well by hugging the baseline. But their current levels are too far apart. However, be careful, because Arthur finished poorly against JM Cerundolo in Cincinnati with cramps. It’s humid here as well, so whatever bet you take, you’ll need to follow it live if possible.