Too much of a favorite?

Blockx is very popular with the market and in general, you find him at a very low price when he’s the favorite, maybe a bit more than he actually deserves.

Blockx is excellent, it makes sense that he’s priced low most of the time. But I feel like we tend to overrate him and put him super low as soon as he’s the favorite, even though there are still a few lapses in his matches. We saw it especially against Coboli, where he couldn’t tighten up his game at the end to close it out. He can hit quite a few double faults, overforce from the baseline, and go missing in certain sets. On the other hand, when his game clicks, it’s very strong. He can return from very far behind the baseline, step in, come to the net, and serve very well. He’s a complete player who’s going to settle into the top 20 quickly, because he really is very complete. Now he has to get through this first round, and we know that the opening match is sometimes a bit tricky, even if on paper he should win.

A bit less pressure for Barrios Vera, who just came through qualifying and that was a big goal for him. I found him very motivated. There were also Chileans in the stands cheering him on. You could feel he was on a mission, but he hasn’t beaten anyone major. The opposition was pretty weak and I’m asking to see a bit more. He still has a fairly atypical profile because he’s tall. He serves pretty well, hits aggressively, has a very nice backhand, and still has that very distinctive technique for playing drop shots. Unfortunately, the draw isn’t great for him, even though I had him down as a player to watch, because I think that once he loosens up, he can reach a really high level of play and surprise some players with his style.

If Blockx plays a complete match and doesn’t spread himself too thin, he’s supposed to win 3–0, because he defends very well and should do damage in the offensive phases. However, this kind of fairly long format is conducive to dips in intensity and lapses in concentration. Barrios is going to fully seize his chance and believe in it pretty much the whole time. He might have a shot at taking a set.