Berrettini will be out for revenge.

The Italian lost to Navone in a lousy match a few weeks ago and will certainly have marked this rematch on his calendar.

I saw that match and I had bet on Berrettini. Big mistake, because the Italian was just coming back and hadn’t played since Wimbledon. He’d said he wanted to be at his peak for the US Open, and that his lead-up tournaments were mainly to help with that. I believe he was being sincere, because he’s now a player who knows how to focus on the big events and manage his schedule well. After that, we saw him play a much more accomplished match against Droguet and against Lehecka. It’s a small step up in intensity from him, even if personally I don’t think he’s playing his best tennis at all. His win over Stan looks straightforward on the scoreboard, but in terms of the match itself, he was really pushed around and deserved to lose at least a set. He was incredibly clinical, saving no fewer than 11 break points out of 13.

On the one hand, that’s also his trademark, he’s an ultra-clutch player, but I’m really not feeling him at the moment...

After his win over Stan, he rightly said that Navone was dangerous because he’s improving a lot on hard courts and coming in with good form. The Argentine didn’t need to build up his level over time, he’s been playing well since the first warm-up tournaments and didn’t stop at Berrettini. He then played some very good matches and only lost to top players. His win over Djokovic confirms that, even if obviously the Serb collapsed physically after the third set. In terms of the match itself, we saw classic Navone: he moves incredibly well, but he also knows how to take the initiative with his forehand and surprise on the counter. He’s a complete player who only really lacks a good quality serve, because the rest is often very solid. The big weakness compared with Berrettini is that he’s rarely clutch in his matches and at the end of sets.

I haven’t forgotten that in their match in Montreal, Navone saved no fewer than 11 break points out of 12 and was very clinical. Berrettini played one of his worst matches of the season, finishing with 62 unforced errors. On the one hand, I find the match-up catastrophic for the Italian, because he gets his serve neutralized more than usual, doesn’t really get any free points, and finds himself stuck in baseline rallies. But on the other hand, he seems to cope reasonably well because he’s resilient and can work effectively with his slice in particular. If he leans a bit more into his net game and shows a slightly higher level than in their last meeting, he’s still the clear favorite for this match. He’s a Grand Slam player, let’s not forget that...