Revenge is a dish best served cold.

Merida recently beat Michelsen, but the American hasn’t had his last word yet.

Michelsen didn’t want to say too much before this match, but he mentioned that he’s learned some things about his opponent and taken a few lessons on board. He really seems determined to get his revenge and has prepared well for this match. As I said, one of the key aspects of his last loss was mainly his lack of a clear strategy to beat this version of Merida. On top of that, he wasn’t at his best physically, which caused a lot of frustration on his part and a lack of clarity. Things have changed now with a good break and few recent matches, which did him a world of good, especially seeing how well he started his tournament. The second important point is the playing conditions, which have completely changed and seem excellent for his style of play. This week, we can see that players with flatter, more aggressive hitting are doing much better.

I’m not going to start bashing Merida, but it’s true that since Montréal, he hasn’t reproduced the same level. I mostly feel like he’s benefited from good draws and capitalized on his form more than anything else. He followed up with a completely roasted Cilic, then a bad-day Bergs who basically handed him the match, and for his start at the US Open, he ran into an injured Fucsovics, and has just beaten Rublev, who is still not at his best. I’m not trying to play down his recent wins at all, but I just found him more impressive in Montréal. That’s what I mean by that.

I’m not expecting him to play at a top-15 level every day, but I feel like he really overperformed and that he’s gently going to settle back to his “normal” level, even though I do think we’re looking at a great player here who’ll be able to play well everywhere. The conditions are a bit less straightforward for players with his profile, because I find it harder to return and to generate enough volume to push the opponent back, like he did against Michelsen in their last meeting. This time, I can see the American being able to capitalize a bit better on his service games and on the first shots in the rally. Also, on his side, ever since the restart against Cina after the rain delay, where he already said he felt a little click, he steamrolled Nakashima. This start of the tournament reminds me of when he was playing steel at the Australian Open...