An Epic Rematch?

Last year was entertaining...

Yes, they actually faced each other last year here at the USO, in the third round. Bublik was coming off two easy straight-set wins against Cilic and Schoolkate. Paul had an easy opening round against Moller, before an absolute five-set war against Borges. He was also having some problems with his foot. This year, both players had a pretty smooth run here... Bublik just dropped a set against Wolf before crushing a fatigued Mannarino. Paul has won against Wong and Prizmic, dropping a set in each match. While there were some worries about Bublik heading into the USO after a long break (and not in the best form), he has dispelled those concerns with his level of play so far. Paul will surely be up for this one, getting some revenge at home!

There is a big change we can notice straight away compared to last year's meeting. Perhaps a bit strangely, this match is scheduled in the first rotation, so they'll be playing around 12.30 at noon, local time. Last time, they were playing in the night session, so that's quite a big difference. Well, what difference does it make? Actually, it could make a big difference. It looks unlikely to rain, so we can expect them to play with the roof open, which should be a good thing for Paul, since Bublik thrives more in indoor settings. Bublik is also someone more likely to take advantage of a late-night crowd to fuel himself. Generally, I don't like early matches for Bublik; he likes to sleep for a long time! I'm saying that I find it more likely that we see a flat Bublik at these "early" hours, compared to Paul. So as for scheduling... advantage Paul, for me.

Now, the matchup. Paul is a good returner, and he also moves incredibly well. Being able to neutralize the serve against Bublik is obviously very important, since it's his biggest weapon, by far. Also, being able to get to the net, to chase drop shots and win the cat-and-mouse points - important. However, Paul's stats against Big Servers are just fine, but nothing more. With his attributes, one would expect him to do better. The issue? He tends to have big dips himself, and that can be very costly, throwing away a service game against someone hard to break. Not only that, but I don't trust him in tiebreaks in these kinds of matches... he can get tight and make some silly mistakes. Just as an example, his match against Mpetshi Perricard at Brisbane this year. I'll cut him a bit of slack, though, since he had not played a match in a long time, finishing his 2025 season very early...