Another long night ahead for Tiafoe.

On paper, the American has had a decent draw since the first round, but in reality, it’s not that simple.

You might think that playing against Damm and Sakamoto is a good draw, but given the level and danger posed by these two players, it was anything but a walk in the park for Tiafoe, who already had to fight hard in his first two rounds. There’s a slight concern about him, because he’s made a few rather lukewarm statements, saying he’s not at his best without really going into detail. Maybe he’s feeling some kind of backlash, or just a lack of physical freshness, combined with the pressure he’s putting on himself for this tournament. I don’t want to write him off, because we know how combative he is in Grand Slams, even more so with the support of the crowd during the night sessions, but it’s clear that at the slightest physical dip, his game really takes a hit.

I could say exactly the same thing about Vacherot, who relies heavily on his physicality and especially on his serve. The Monegasque hasn’t played any great matches since coming back from injury and had also struggled a lot physically. He reassured me on that front with his win over Majchrzak, because the match was intense with a significant number of long rallies, and I found the overall level quite high. The Monegasque held up well and looked very strong physically at the end. I don’t know if there will be a backlash on his side, because we’ve seen many players suffer one without having shown many warning signs beforehand. But if we go by Vacherot’s track record, we know he’s a robust athlete. And the fact that this match is being played late is an advantage for him. He’ll just have the humidity to deal with, and that’s not an issue.

This will be a first meeting between them, and I don’t think Vacherot is a very comfortable match‑up for Tiafoe, because the quality of the Monegasque’s serve is going to really hurt the American, who has major issues on return, even if he’s making some progress there. But we clearly saw in the first two rounds that it’s still not enough. On the other hand, Vacherot is not an excellent returner, but once the point is neutral, he really doesn’t miss much and holds up well from the baseline, always with the option of coming forward to finish points at the net. He too is a fierce competitor who enjoys playing against the crowd and can draw strength from a tight match, which could well be the case here.