I like you, Francisco, but...

The Argentinian is often labeled as a real giant-killer, super interesting as an outsider. But right now, it's clear we really don't feel like taking that risk.

We can say without beating around the bush that Cerundolo’s preparation for this US Open has been disastrous. The Argentinian hasn’t shown much motivation and, above all, a level of play well below what he’s usually capable of. Personally, I wasn’t expecting much from him at this Grand Slam, but here he is in the third round. And judging by his celebration against Struff, you can tell it really meant something to him. On the other hand, in terms of level, it’s still just as catastrophic. Between his problems on serve and his sometimes downright defeatist attitude, you can legitimately start asking questions. That said, we’re talking about a player who’s much more comfortable when he has nothing to lose and who often raises his level against top players, which will be the case here. As far as I’m concerned, his tournament is already a success, and now he’ll finally be able to play relaxed and maybe show his best tennis at last!

We don’t have the same doubts when it comes to Fritz, who’s having an absolutely perfect start to the tournament, with no sets dropped and no breaks conceded. The American prepared decently for this event and doesn’t seem keen on wasting time. It’s important to be efficient in the early rounds and, even if he hasn’t faced anyone big so far, this is still another round well within his reach. And unless he really drops off, combined with a surge in Cerundolo’s level—who will have to fix his serving issues but also his baseline game as a whole—this scenario seems pretty unlikely to me.

They’re tied 1–1 in their head-to-head, but both matches were played on clay. Cerundolo’s best surface is undoubtedly Fritz’s worst. The American has a huge advantage on hard courts thanks to his serve quality, but also his aggressive baseline game. Unfortunately for Cerundolo, I think he’s going to get a bit destroyed in every area…