New Gen

This one could be an absolute banger...

Wow, what a great match we are getting in the third round. There was a lot of talk about Tien not having won a match at the USO until his wins this year. Yes, it's true... but it was also against Kecmanovic, Tiafoe, Djokovic, and Fils. And it was since 2022, when Tien was something like a 19+ underdog to Kecmanovic. So we really have to put it into context. Well, we can see that he is hungry to do well here. His first match against Borges was borderline perfect. Nuno had the chance to come out with a new and improved game plan against a player he has struggled a lot with in his last two meetings. Sadly, about ten minutes into the match, he just about gave up. Tien was given a big match against Monfils, which he handled nicely. It was always going to be a very nice matchup for him, especially having faced Gael earlier in Montreal. I do think the conditions are great for Tien, and he has managed his two matches very well - even if he is yet to be tested a bit more.

As for Mensik, I almost feel as if he is slightly going under the radar at the moment. I still don't think this is the best part of the swing for him; I prefer him in Australia or in Doha/Dubai. His lead-up tournaments to the USO have not been bad... he does well against the players he should beat, but he has struggled against the players who were in form. Nakashima in Washington (he really had the chance to win that one), Shelton in Montreal (really tough), and then a good Tirante in Cincinnati (who also had a good game plan). There is a common pattern in his matches where he tends to have a part of the match where he really dips, which is manageable against weaker opponents but gets punished by the good ones.

I find this quite an interesting matchup. We always prefer Mensik vs aggressive players, preferably predictably, with a lot of rhythm. He is outstanding in these matches; he can absorb and redirect the pace so well. Tien does not really play like that; he loves to construct points, he's a wall from the baseline and wears opponents down, forcing them to go for more. Still, I don't find it that bad. One of the Czech's weaknesses is when he gets rushed on his forehand with low, flat balls, but that's not really how Tien plays. Also, we have a pretty decent bounce here. Mensik's forehand can be a bit shaky, but under these circumstances, I think it can do some damage! His backhand is also really solid, which is always good against a left-hander. Tien has looked great in his matches, but I still found him slightly pressured on his own serve against Monfils a few times. Mensik has been fortunate to also have a really easy draw to get to this round, and for once, he hasn't managed to get tangled up in huge battles early on. That's important for me, since he might just need all his energy in this match...