We are getting used to this

It feels like we get Paul vs Alcaraz at least once per year...

I think I've previewed this matchup at least 2-3 times by now. Let's quickly talk about how both players have made it to the fourth round. Paul had a pretty good draw, facing Wong and Prizmic before having a big battle against Bublik. That match turned out to be really serve-oriented, with both players being really efficient in their own service games. Paul went down 2-1, but managed to win the remaining two sets, while Bublik completely faded in the heat and more or less tanked the match. There were some concerns about Alcaraz's lack of matches heading into this tournament, but he quickly showed us that he can get back to a great level more or less straight away. He had to go through three aggressive opponents to get here: Safiullin, Faria and Wu. He never really looked threatened in any match; he was able to match the pace and did a good job of being the one who dictates the rallies, not allowing his opponents to take control of the baseline. This is important, since these kinds of attacking opponents tend to be a lot more vulnerable while having to defend; they really prefer to be the ones dictating, since they are not players who are good at turning defense into offense.

Paul is a bit more suited to play Alcaraz, I would say. First of all, he is a better and more consistent player than any of the three players Alcaraz has already fought. He serves better, which is really important; you don't want to be stuck in too many baseline rallies against the elite players, even if he can definitely hold his own there. Apart from that, having the ability to do some serve-and-volley and come to the net... another way to finish points without having to try and overpower him from the baseline, which is very hard. This is something that was really visible in Alcaraz's match against Wu... The Chinese player was amazing at times from the baseline, but the fact that he is not comfortable at all coming forward meant that he was forced to win everything more or less from the baseline, which is very hard against Carlos.

Now, my main issue for Paul in this match is the same as it has always been. I think that Paul has a great peak level, but he struggles to maintain it throughout an entire match, especially in a best-of-five sets. I really prefer this matchup for Paul in a regular best-of-three match, where he can "stay hot" for long enough, and also where Alcaraz's dips are punished more. It can also be seen in the H2H; the competitive matches have been in non-Grand Slams. Their matches tend to follow a similar pattern... Paul plays very well for a set or so; it even looks like he can win the match at the time. Then, his level drops, while Alcaraz's level either goes up or stays the same at a pretty high level. Now, can Paul do something to really challenge Alcaraz this time? He really has no pressure to perform here; he can play completely freely. As for Alcaraz, there is more pressure. He is the defending champion, and with no Sinner and a subpar Zverev, surely he feels that there is a great chance of winning another GS, despite just coming back from injury...