Opportunists?

For the last Grand Slam tournament of the year, this isn’t a final that makes me dream, but both players are here and deserve their place.

Zverev clearly took advantage of Sinner and Alcaraz’s stop-start year to make his breakthrough in Grand Slams and “eat well.” The German got his first Slam title and is playing with less pressure on his shoulders—well, that’s what we thought, but in the end I’m not even sure about that. When I look at how his matches go and the way he plays, I still see a player in tight-arm mode who above all doesn’t want to lose. I don’t get the feeling I’m watching the third guy on tour who’s dominating the rest while waiting for the two monsters to come back; it mostly feels like Zverev is there without really deserving it. His draw to reach the final is awful and I’ll say it again: the content of his matches still hasn’t convinced me. When you see how passive he is and how much he feels the pressure against Khachanov, I tell myself Shelton really has something to go for here.

For this tournament, for me there’s no contest: Shelton has played the best tennis, even more so when you look at his gauntlet of a path. He hasn’t had a single easy match from the first round all the way to the semis and he’s produced some real boss-level performances. It’s hard to find much to criticize; even in terms of attitude he’s gained in maturity. Against Tiafoe he starts badly and looks flat, but I didn’t feel like he was panicking—he just put his head down and went back to work, plain and simple. This will be his first Slam final, and at home on top of that, the pressure is huge, but unlike some other players I think he loves this so much that he won’t be too overwhelmed by the occasion. You can also say he usually plays without tightening up; he’s not someone who folds under pressure. Here too, despite how big the occasion is, I think he’s capable of doing it.

He’s going to have to figure it out, because for now he’s never beaten Zverev in 5 meetings and has only taken a single set off him. We all know Zverev’s stat against lefties, but Shelton does too, and we’ve seen him be much more patient and capable of making tactical changes. If I were him, I’d go into Zverev’s forehand cross-court, slicing and waiting for the right opportunity to accelerate and do damage. It’s a one-off match, a one-off tournament, and above all a final. Where Shelton failed against Zverev, well this time I really think…