Lloyd already a good favorite...

And that’s normal for two main reasons: he’s been able to string tournaments together without injuries for a while now (and he’s piling up a lot of wins since he’s clearly playing above his ranking), and he’s been in China for about ten days already with a tournament under his belt, plus two qualifying rounds that he breezed through here in Chengdu.

I’d add something else: Chengdu tends to suit the South African quite well, with no fewer than 6 wins here as an underdog (out of 8 total wins). I obviously put that down to the altitude and humidity, which fit the player’s style perfectly.

On Kovacevic’s side, nothing really new since the US Open. We know him well by now. He often struggles against good counter-punchers, meaning either solid defenders or guys with great court coverage who can handle his power. Hence the losses to VDZ, Norrie, Borges, Fery, Vacherot... These players are obviously top level, but they share that common trait I’m describing, and I’m afraid today it’ll also be tough against Lloyd Harris for the same reason.

Indeed, the match-up here seems tricky for the American, who’ll be facing a guy who, contrary to what you might initially think, is pretty resilient in rallies. It’s that combo of a guy who can make zero unforced errors for 10 minutes just to force you into missing, plus the ability to surprise you by coming forward to the net very quickly. Not necessarily spectacular, but Lloyd plays the right way. I think his peak level is lower than Kovacevic’s, but he’s much more consistent.