A renewal or a catastrophe

Rublev is gently slipping down the rankings and now has to aim for wins in ATP 250s to regain confidence.

Rublev’s second half of the season really hasn’t been good. He’s scraping through matches and keeps losing to good players, but especially to players he used to beat in the past. Now it feels like he’s struggling almost every time. He’s counting on this Asian swing to try to get his confidence back. And it starts with a match against Hijikata, whom he’s never faced before. On paper, he’s still above that kind of player, but will he get through it easily?

I’m not so sure, since, on the contrary, Hijikata is having a really decent year and often manages to trouble good players. He won a solid match against Svircina. On his side, I hardly have anything negative to say. He played well, he was solid on his serve and, despite a scare in the second set, he managed to close it out without panicking too much. It’s a good win. However, I also have to point out that Svircina was disastrous the whole match. He’s still harmless on his serve. He piled up double faults and allowed Hijikata to be very often in touch on his service games. Even in the rallies, I didn’t recognize the usual Svircina, who finished with more than fifty unforced errors in just two sets. In other words, Hijikata’s first round was good, but the opposition was weak.

Rublev knows how to hold serve and sometimes struggles a bit to make an impact on return. But Hijikata isn’t a great server either. I’d say the conditions are pretty good for Rublev. It’s fast without being too extreme. He should have the luxury of being able to dictate play. I think the Asian swing can help him find some momentum again. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the last few months, it’s that you should rarely trust him at such a low price in early rounds.