The temptation is great.

Vallejo said he was physically exhausted after his long first-round fight, but also and above all after a long trip from Peru.

This week, we’re paying particular attention to players who played Davis Cup ties in countries far from China and now have to follow up with very little rest. Vallejo falls into that category: he’s one of the players who travelled the furthest, and he already had to battle for nearly three hours in his opening match. I thought his level of play was fairly solid with a good mindset, as usual, but he had a noticeable drop in intensity, and his whole game depends heavily on being physically fresh. He’s a player who likes to grind from the baseline and inject good pace; if his physical level drops, it’s hard for him to compensate with his serve or just his arm alone.

Now that all this has been said, and given that Vallejo really hammered home in his post-match interview that he was exhausted, we have to ask whether the market hasn’t already priced that in too much. Everyone is aware of this information, and Wong is a clear favourite as a result.

He beat Zhang in the first round in a controlled match with quite a few successful breaks. He’s a player to keep an eye on during this swing and he’s having a remarkable season. I often feel he plays better than people give him credit for. His serve is a real weapon, and he knows how to play well from the baseline when it matters.

I think he’s better on hard courts and, of course, his physical freshness is a very strong argument in this matchup. I’ll still be cautious though, because bets based solely on physical condition are rarely profitable. And given Wong’s odds, you really need to be sure that Vallejo will be exhausted, which, with a day of rest, isn’t 100% certain in my opinion.