A match tailor-made for the Night Session

Bublik vs Mensik in a first round of an ATP 500 is still quite a match. I hope both will be at their best to put on a show for us.

They both come back from the Laver Cup. Mensik also played Davis Cup in the Czech Republic, which added fatigue and travel for him, and that’s not ideal. Bublik was also at the Laver Cup, but barely played. We can assume he’ll be the fresher one physically, but I’m not sure the physical aspect matters that much in a match where players will need to be very precise on serve and where long rallies shouldn’t be frequent.

The courts are quite fast, or at least not as slow as expected this week, which further points towards a fairly tight match profile. Mensik has won both of his previous meetings against Bublik, and I can see why. The Czech serves as well as Bublik, maybe even better, because his second serve is a bit more reliable. His backhand easily matches Bublik’s, and on the forehand side, I’d say it’s pretty even. Mensik is much more focused, and he can play just as well on return as on offense. His versatility really hurts Bublik.

Despite a title in China last year for Bublik, the Kazakh tends to neglect this part of the season and not be very motivated. To be fair, last year he had the best season of his career and performed well during several stretches when he usually doesn’t. All these little things make me not very optimistic for him on this swing, and consequently in this first round. On paper, it’s a very high-level match, and I don’t think Bublik will be strong enough to win, unless Mensik also isn’t at his best.