Tilt Party !

We’ve got two players who aren’t exactly known for their mental resilience and who could each tilt in their own way in this match.

When I say they can react in their own way, I mean it shows up differently. Generally, Griekspoor plays good matches until he reaches a point of no return and completely throws away the end of the match from the moment he no longer feels like playing. It’s something that happens quite often with him, especially against top players. But it’s also worth pointing out that he’s often good against those players and can sometimes pull off big wins. The momentum isn’t great on his side, but I always see him as a dangerous underdog. There’s still one small point that needs clarifying. He lost last week and pulled out of doubles citing an abdominal injury. Either he just didn’t feel like playing, which is fine, or he really does have something wrong with his abs. And in that case, it’s much more problematic, especially for a player so dependent on his serve.

The momentum is still better on Rublev’s side, with a final played in Hangzhou and mostly pretty good matches, despite a few meltdowns, especially against Gaston. I saw a very high level from the Russian who, as soon as he can dictate play, is excellent. He lost in the final to a Medvedev who was incredibly strong on serve and hit 23 aces in just two sets. Sure, Rublev isn’t the best returner, but he’s not a complete sieve either. That’s a point that catches my attention because Griekspoor is a very good server. If Rublev is still lost on return, then he’s heading straight into a real banana-skin match.

Griekspoor has already beaten him this year, but he’s trailing 3–1 in their head-to-head. I put him in the category of very dangerous players to face in the early rounds, because generally, it comes down to small margins and tiebreaks. Rublev had a good week, but when you take a step back, he beat Hijikata, Gaston, and Jaquet, which isn’t exactly amazing, even if all of his opponents played good matches. When you look at Rublev’s last few weeks, it’s pretty weak, and trusting him blindly after just three wins, I’m not so sure about that.