Yet another real trap for Flavio.

I feel like the Italian always gets tough draws in the early rounds and has to perform straight away or he’s out.

It’s not necessarily a tournament where I’m expecting much from Cobolli, but overall he’s solid and holds his rank. Last year, he beat Rublev in the first round, and in 2024 he beat Bublik in the first round. This year, he’s up against a real tough opponent again and has to be ready right from the start, which isn’t really his strong point. He’s said it several times already: he’s a player who doubts a lot and is very mentally unstable. He needs to build up his level and believe in his game. He also has to manage the transition after the Laver Cup, where he played a few matches without being impressive. He even said again that mentally it was a disaster after his loss to Tien. That’s why it’s very hard to trust him despite his ranking, which is high compared to the odds he usually gets.

Safiullin started his Asian swing well last week with a good run in the draw before losing only to Medvedev, the eventual tournament winner. The Russian played at an excellent level, especially in the last two matches, which I found outstanding. He had a scare with his upper thigh against Alice and seemed a bit hampered. But after that, he never showed the slightest sign of it again, which I find quite strange. He’s a player who physically isn’t very reliable, and if this match were to go to three sets with a real physical battle, I’d lean more towards Cobolli. On the other hand, for the rest, I think the Russian still has something to say in this matchup. He’s a player who takes the ball very early and likes to dictate play. We’ve seen several times this season that Cobolli doesn’t excel against this type of player. The Italian also has some stability issues on serve, with a percentage that can be very low. Above all, he has an attitude problem that can cost him dearly.

This match looks like one where Cobolli starts badly, shows a shitty attitude, then somehow manages to hang in there and tear himself apart before either losing or scraping through in a dogfight.