Lightweights!

This won’t be a power or serving duel this time, but something much more tactical, with longer rallies.

There’s already a clear difference in momentum and rhythm over the past few weeks, which could change things in this match. I’ll start with De Minaur, who is defending a semifinal here and is looking to find his best level this year. He’s also dealing with mental issues in managing his very poor season and seemed a bit dejected again recently. He won his two Davis Cup matches and got the better of Zverev at the Laver Cup, a tournament that quite a few players, including the German, take seriously. That win, along with the matches he won for his country, could really help him rebuild some momentum at the end of the season. Obviously, the schedule has been pretty heavy, with several long trips, but he’s really fresh this year and, by nature, he’s not the kind of player who struggles with playing a lot. His problems lie elsewhere, and I’m not all that worried.

Navone doesn’t have the same questions to ask himself about a demanding schedule, since the Argentine hasn’t played again since the US Open. He was still called up for the Davis Cup and made the trip, but he didn’t play any matches there. I’m not too worried about his workload on that side. That should give us an enjoyable match to watch: even if De Minaur already has matches in his legs, Navone is going to have to get himself going again. The Argentine was pretty good during the American swing, with some solid wins against players low on confidence, whom he also managed to wear down physically. Even if De Minaur seems to be struggling, I don’t feel like this is a great match-up for Navone, and I believe a lot less in the Argentine right now, in this moment.