Do better and save face!

Shang has never made it past the first round in this tournament in three appearances. Is this time the right one?

Shang’s three losses in this tournament came against Nishioka, Bu, and Cazaux last year. Three tricky players you don’t necessarily want to face in the first round. Admittedly, they’re not big names and Shang could have come through. I find the draw nicer this year against Baez. It’s a good opportunity to take. He really needs to avoid being tense or putting huge pressure on himself, which can sometimes happen. His tournament in Chengdu last week was not very convincing, with a loss to Mannarino in a tricky match-up where he kind of let himself get lulled to sleep, I’d say, and where his lefty advantage didn’t work. I also have to highlight Mannarino’s excellent match: he served very well and, being stronger from the baseline, was helped a lot by that. Shang was quite messy and erratic.

On Baez’s side, there was also a first-round loss last week in Chengdu to Brooksby, but I didn’t see the match and the stats actually look pretty good for the Argentinian, especially since Brooksby played well afterwards. I don’t really know what to make of it because we remember Baez’s previous ends of season, which were disastrous, and he comes in with a rather complicated dynamic. Since his good Challenger run in Cancun, he’s been pretty disappointing. He retired from a match because he was sick, he lost to an in-form Nakashima, and then there’s this loss to Brooksby. Maybe I’m seeing him as a bit worse than he actually is.

I don’t have a very strong opinion on this match-up either. You could think Baez’s solidity might bring out Shang’s weaknesses, but Baez is also a player who likes to inject pace and take charge of the rallies with his forehand, and he can also rack up errors. He’s not an incredibly passive player. I actually quite like the tempo he sets from the baseline, with little variation, which could suit Shang. The conditions this week are quite fast, which also favors the Chinese player and the quality of his serve.